As Crimea has voted to join the Russian Federation and unsettlement breaks out, we see two obvious paths, both depending on Russia's next moves. First, Russia and ukraine will emerge into a hot war, or it could all cool down.
Political
Under the current circumstances, many countries have grown wary of a brewing cold war. The head of the Eastern Program of the Polish Institution of International Affairs said that "...any Russian attempts to forcibly annex the Crimea are unacceptable to the international committee," and has advised Russia to pull back from Ukraine. President Obama of the United States has mentioned in a speech in Brussels on March 26th, that "This is not another COld War we're entering into. After all, unlike the Soviet Union, Russia lends no block of nations, no global ideology." Vladimir Putin, president of Russia, also has stated that he "would not like to think that this is a beginning of a new Cold War", but also that Russia will not "just sit on the bench and listen to what others say." Putin further denies the suspiciousions of a new Cold War by continuing,
"They try to put a label on us- a label that we are trying to restore an empire, the Soviet Union."
The political standings have become so intense that NATO has suspended cooperation with Russia due to their actions against Ukraine, though Ukraine pushes the idea that they do not want to be under Western leadership. Because of Russia's suspension from the organization, Ukraine will be offered more chances to participate instead. NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said,
"So today, we are suspending all practical cooperation with Russia, military and civilian,"
"So today, we are suspending all practical cooperation with Russia, military and civilian,"
Military
The government military has been a large part of this conflict, perhaps inciting the conflict itself. Recently, Russia has pulled back troops, leaving 7 battalions on Ukraine's border. This makes about 40,000 men. Rebels are still loud and fighting, and about 50 were killed fighting military troops on May 26th. The fighting is to the point where a coup has been suspected, though rebel leaders deny it. US Defence secretary, Chuck Hagel said on the matter,
“They are not where they need to be and won’t be until all of their troops that they positioned along that border a couple of months ago are gone,” ... “We do know that thousands of Russian troops have been pulled back and are moving away. But we also know that there are still thousands of Russian troops still there that have not yet moved,”
With NATO standing against Russia, it means that if Russia does not pull back, NATO could potentially send troops and equipment to Eastern European allies, review military strategies, hold more exercises. The US has sent aircrafts to patrol, and has practiced with Polish air force, and the number of US troops bordering Ukraine has increased. However, US Secretary of State emphasizes that these actions are being taken to calm the situation, and not to incite more. He said,
"At the same time, it is important for everybody in the world to understand the NATO alliance takes seriously this attempt to change borders by use of force,"
"At the same time, it is important for everybody in the world to understand the NATO alliance takes seriously this attempt to change borders by use of force,"
In Conclusion
Though the fighting continues, we do not believe that there will be a large war other than what is already happening. The governments have expressed their unwillingness to start or participate in a Cold War, and we do not think that it would be wise for a war to occur. The war would be wise to be avoided, for all levels of society. If a war does happen, it would prove to be harmful to the societies of the countries involved. It can cause harm to Russia's political standing, and can also affect trade partners like Germany, who depends on Russia for trade. A domino effect can occur in this situation and impact the larger scale of the world. Because there are more cons than pros to a war breaking out due to this situation, we believe it would be wisest to avoid a war, and we believe that the governments wil decide so also.