Through examining past conflicts similar to the one at hand, we can predict the future outcome of the issue using the conflict perspective. The most relevant conflicts that relate are Crimean War and the Orange Revolution.
The Crimean War
The Crimean War started on March of 1854, when Britain, France, and their allies declared war on Russia. The conflict started because on March 16th, Crimea had decided to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. The British and French had started to think that Russia was growing too big in power, and was becoming a threat to them. It didn't help their suspicions when Russia and the Ottoman Empire got into a conflict, where Russia invaded the Ottoman Empire territories that would be today's Romania and Moldova. The British and the French won the battle against Russia and the Crimeans who joined them in 1856.
The war was a huge dysfunction due to the fact that there was poor planning in the war, causing many deaths. In Alfred Lord Tennyson's poem about the war, The Charge of the Light Brigade, he writes:
"Storm’d at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the six hundred."
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the six hundred."
showing us the deaths due to the lack of preparation of the British soldiers. Though on a global scale, this war did not have huge impacts on the world, it left a mark on the macro scale; on Crimea. Conflicts like these ones make Russia want to retain Crimea due to the fact that they had been attacked and invaded by many strong countries in their past because of conflict perspective reasons. For example, Germany wanted land and resources that Russia had had in World War II. Crimea would have been there to block these attacks as a front line of sorts.
Though Britain and France and their allies won the past Crimean War of 1854, there were disastrous results due to the lack of planning and rushing into battle. If Ukraine rushes into a battle they are not prepared for, this time, the effects will be widespread and global instead of only micro and macro.
Though Britain and France and their allies won the past Crimean War of 1854, there were disastrous results due to the lack of planning and rushing into battle. If Ukraine rushes into a battle they are not prepared for, this time, the effects will be widespread and global instead of only micro and macro.
The Orange Revolution
The Orange Revolution of 2004 was an important movement in the history of Ukraine. On November of that year, protests erupted in Kiev's Independence Square about the presidential election results. The elections were an electoral fraud, which showed Yunukovych's victory over Yuschenko's. Yuschenko's supporters adorned themselves in orange, and carried orange flags (because Yuschenko's party, Our Ukraine's color was orange) in protest. There were over 500,000 people participating the the mass protest. Many of these protesters were educated youths, who had spread the word and received the message largely due to the technology of cellphones and social networking, which allowed their call for protest to be spread to large audiences quickly. This protest forced the Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian Parliament, to recall the election results. On December 3, 2004, the Supreme Court of Ukraine declared a re-run on the 26th of the same month. On January 10, 2005, Yuschenko was elected president with 51.99% of the votes.
The Orange Revolution is reminiscent of the current Crimean Conflict mainly because of the high number of youth protesters. These protesters were both educated groups, unhappy with government decisions, and willing to protest for what they believe in. On the interactionist perspective, we see how both groups used technology and the ability to share ideas with people of similar interest instantaneously over the Internet to their benefit and get their masses to join. From the functionalist perspective, both parties were trying to fight to make their society function in a way that they thought was correct for their society to work in. However, it is arguable that protests such as these two can be dysfunctions in society, because it shakes the stability of society. Conflicts like these also show us social darwinism in that the fittest, being the crowd, survived the Orange Revolution.
So because the Orange Revolution was successful, perhaps we can hope that the Crimean War can be successful for the youth of the Ukrainian nation.